By Elume Raymond
Mali and Zambia begin their Africa Cup of Nations campaigns on Monday with a Group A showdown at Stade Mohammed V in Casablanca. Kick-off is scheduled for 15:00 local time (14:00 GMT) as both sides look to set an early tone in the tournament.
This will be just the second meeting between the two nations at AFCON finals, more than three decades after their first encounter. That clash came in the semi-finals of the 1994 tournament in Tunis, when Zambia produced a stunning 4–0 victory. Goals from Elihah Litana, Zeddy Saileti, Kalusha Bwalya and Kenneth Malitoli sealed a result that remains one of the most significant in Zambian football history.
For Mali, that defeat still stands as one of their heaviest at AFCON matched only by their 4–0 semi-final loss to Morocco in 2004 while for Zambia, it remains their joint-largest win at the continental finals.
Across all competitions, the two sides have met six times, with Zambia holding a narrow historical edge: two wins to Mali’s one, alongside three draws. Their most recent meeting came in a friendly in September 2022 in Bamako, where Mali edged a 1–0 win thanks to an early strike from El Bilal Touré.
Four of those encounters have been competitive fixtures one at AFCON, two in FIFA World Cup qualifying, and one at the 2016 African Nations Championship and Zambia remain unbeaten in those matches, recording two wins and two draws.
Monday’s match also marks the first AFCON appearance in Morocco for both teams, neither having featured when the tournament was last hosted there in 1988.
Mali will be keen to announce themselves as genuine contenders in Group A, while Zambia Africa’s champions in 2012 will be eager to rekindle past glories and begin their campaign with intent.
Match Preview
Mali begin their 10th consecutive AFCON appearance once again cast as potential dark horses a label that has stubbornly refused to turn into silverware in recent years. After back-to-back third-place finishes in 2012 and 2013, the Eagles have failed to progress beyond the quarterfinals in each of the last five editions. Yet there is a sense that this campaign could be different. A strong run-up to the tournament has seen Mali lose just one of their last five matches (three wins, one draw), form that underpins their confidence heading into the opener.
History also favors the West Africans when it comes to starting strongly. Mali have never lost an opening AFCON match in their previous 13 tournament appearances, recording eight wins and five draws. Despite reaching the final once and collecting two bronze medals, they have often struggled to leave a lasting mark on Africa’s biggest stage. With a talented and balanced squad at their disposal, Mali arrive in confident mood though AFCON’s reputation for surprises ensures nothing can be taken for granted.
Zambia, meanwhile, head into the 2025 edition with far less external expectation, widely viewed as outsiders in a demanding Group A. Recent form offers little encouragement, with the Chipolopolo arriving on the back of four consecutive defeats and nine losses in their last ten matches. Caretaker coach Moses Sichone faces a formidable task in restoring competitiveness, and recent tournament history does little to ease the pressure.
Since their fairytale AFCON triumph in 2012, Zambia have endured a difficult decade: failing to qualify on three occasions and exiting at the group stage in the four tournaments they did reach without winning a single group-stage match since lifting the trophy (seven draws, two defeats). Still, there are reasons for optimism. Zambia topped their qualifying group, and opening against Mali rather than hosts Morocco may be viewed as a relative advantage, particularly given their solid historical record against Monday’s opponents.
The former champions will be guided by experienced hands on the touchline, with a former Chipolopolo defender, Moses Sichone stepping in at a critical moment, bringing top-level pedigree to the dugout. Zambian supporters will hope that experience, coupled with a nothing-to-lose mentality, can help spark an unlikely revival when the action gets underway in Morocco.
Head-to-Head History
After five failed attempts (D3, L2), Mali won their most recent encounter with Zambia 1-0 in September 2022.
Mali form (all competitions):
L W L W W D
Zambia form (all competitions):
L W L L L L
Team News
Mali have refreshed their squad with several new faces, chief among them Kamory Doumbia, who has already established himself as a key figure. The midfielder has been a reliable difference-maker, with Mali losing just one of the 11 matches in which he has scored, underlining his growing importance to the team. His influence is expected to be central to Mali’s attacking flow throughout the tournament.
There is, however, a notable concern in midfield. Yves Bissouma has been named in the squad but remains a doubt due to a knee injury, and his availability could determine how assertively Mali look to dominate the centre of the pitch. If he is unavailable, coach Tom Saintfiet still has trusted options in Aliou Dieng and Mamadou Sangaré, both of whom offer a strong balance between ball recovery and forward progression.
Tactically, Mali are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1, a shape that points towards controlled possession, midfield superiority and well-timed runs into the penalty area rather than constant direct play. Within that structure, Doumbia’s form, intelligence and decision-making are likely to dictate the team’s attacking rhythm.
Zambia, by contrast, arrive with a clean bill of health and a settled core despite a difficult run of results. They are also expected to deploy a 4-2-3-1, though with a more transitional emphasis. Rather than seeking to dominate possession, Zambia are likely to sit compact, absorb pressure and break quickly, targeting space with early passes into Patson Daka’s runs and making the most of Fashion Sakala’s ball-carrying ability.
Daka, the most influential figure in the current Zambian squad, is still searching for his first AFCON goal. Even so, his movement off the ball and threat in behind remain Zambia’s clearest attacking outlet as they look to punish Mali on the counter.
Possible starting line-ups
Mali:
Samassa; Dante, Fofana, Niakate, W. Coulibaly; Dieng, Sangare; K. Doumbia, Nene, Coulibaly; Toure
Zambia:
Mulenga; Bandar, Musonda, Chanda, Hamansenya; Tembo, Simunkonda; Phindi, Sakala, Kangwa; Daka
Hot stats and streaks
- Kamory Doumbia continues to bring impact for Mali, with four of his last five international goals coming after half-time, often influencing matches when they are at their most decisive.
- Zambia’s attacking reference point, Patson Daka, has a habit of striking first, having scored his country’s opening goal in five of his last six international matches in which he found the net.
- Game patterns tend to hold for Mali: the half-time score has been repeated at full-time in 11 of their last 13 matches, highlighting their control once ahead or their difficulty overturning deficits.
- Zambia have struggled to start matches strongly, scoring before the break just once in their last ten outings.
- Mali have shown consistency at the tournament itself, progressing beyond the group stage in each of their last three AFCON appearances.
- Zambia, by contrast, have been eliminated at the group stage in each of their last three AFCON tournaments.
- Mali boast an outstanding record in openers, never losing their first AFCON match (13 played: eight wins, five draws).
- Zambia also tend to start tournaments well, remaining unbeaten in their opening match at the last six AFCON editions.
- Mali are currently on a 10-match unbeaten run in AFCON group-stage fixtures.
- Zambia are enduring a difficult stretch at the finals, winless in their last 10 AFCON matches (eight draws, two defeats).
- Defensive solidity has underpinned Mali’s progress, having conceded just one goal during qualifying, with five clean sheets from six matches.
- Zambia arrive with confidence from qualifying, having finished top of Group G ahead of Côte d’Ivoire.